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13 articlesThe math behind better decisions — across sportsbooks and prediction markets.
What Is Vig? The Hidden Tax on Every Bet You Place
Every sportsbook and prediction market charges vig — the built-in margin that guarantees the house profits. Here's how to calculate it and strip it from any line.
Bankroll Turnover: Why Bet Volume Matters More Than Edge
A 1% edge bet 100 times beats a 10% edge bet once. Here's the math behind turnover rate, compounding, and why volume is the real strategy.
Closing Line Value: The Best Predictor of Long-Term Profit
Win rate is noise. Closing line value is signal. Here's why the line at market close tells you more about your skill than your actual results.
Correlated Positions: The Hidden Risk in Your Portfolio
Holding related prediction market positions amplifies your risk in ways that aren't obvious. Here's how to measure correlation and size positions accordingly.
Cross-Platform Arbitrage: Sportsbook vs Prediction Market Arbs
Lock in guaranteed profit when sportsbooks and prediction markets disagree on price. The math behind cross-platform arbs, fee impact, and when they're worth it.
Expected Value in Betting: How to Calculate EV
Expected value is the single metric that separates winning bettors from losing ones. Here's how to calculate it and why nothing else matters long-term.
The Kelly Criterion: How Much Should You Bet?
Finding +EV bets is only half the problem. The Kelly Criterion tells you exactly how much to wager — and why most bettors should use a fraction of it.
Finding Mispriced Outcomes in Multi-Outcome Markets
Multi-outcome prediction markets — elections, awards, sports futures — are harder to price correctly. Here's where the edge hides and how to find it.
American, Decimal, Fractional: Odds Formats Explained
Three formats, one concept. Here's how American, Decimal, and Fractional odds work, how to convert between them, and which format you should actually use.
The Math Behind Parlays: Why the House Always Wins (More)
Parlays are the most profitable product sportsbooks sell. Here's exactly how vig compounds across legs and why the true hold is worse than you think.
Polymarket vs Kalshi: A Quantitative Comparison
A numbers-driven breakdown of fees, liquidity, contract types, and which platform gives you a better deal depending on what you trade.
How Prediction Market Fees Eat Your Edge
A detailed breakdown of fee structures on Kalshi and Polymarket, and how they silently destroy your expected value on trades that look profitable.
Sportsbooks vs Prediction Markets: Where Should You Trade?
Two ways to bet on outcomes, completely different mechanics. Here's how odds, fees, liquidity, and market types compare — and when to use each.