Prediction Market News

The fees, taxes, and rules that move across Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and every prediction market. Dated, sourced, and explained with the math, so you always know what a trade actually costs.

  1. Regulation

    CFTC Prediction Market Rules 2026: What the June 10 NPRM Changes

    The CFTC's first formal prediction-market rulemaking creates a 3-part public interest test for event contracts and explicitly bans injury props and play-call contracts.

  2. Launches

    Kalshi Launches First U.S.-Regulated Bitcoin and Ethereum Perpetual Futures

    Kalshi's CFTC-approved BTC and ETH perpetual futures went live June 3-4. Here is what the product is, what it costs, and how it compares to prediction market fees.

  3. Regulation

    Nevada Blocks Polymarket: All 5 Major Prediction Markets Now Restricted in the State

    Judge Woodbury granted Nevada's preliminary injunction against Polymarket on May 29. The state has now restricted all five major prediction market platforms from offering sports, election, and entertainment contracts to state residents.

  4. Fees

    Polymarket's Taker Rebate Program: 7 Volume Tiers, Up to 50% Back on Fees

    Polymarket's new tiered rebate cuts taker fees by 3% to 50% based on 30-day weighted volume, paid daily in pUSD. Here is the full tier table and what each level actually saves.

  5. Regulation

    Prediction Market Regulation Escalates: Kalshi Sues Minnesota, CFTC Sues Rhode Island

    Late May 2026 brought a wave of prediction-market lawsuits and split appeals-court rulings. Here is the state of play and what it means for your account.

  6. Taxes

    Will Kalshi, Polymarket, or Robinhood Send a 1099 for 2026? What Each Platform Actually Does

    No 1099 does not mean no tax. Here is what Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood actually report for 2026, and why the reporting gap is yours to close.

  7. Fees

    Kalshi's 2026 Fee Schedule and New Volume Tiers: What a Trade Actually Costs

    Kalshi's fee schedule, effective February 5, 2026, keeps the per-contract formula but adds volume-based taker tiers. We run the numbers on what you actually pay.