Cboe Global Markets entered prediction markets on June 23, 2026, listing XSPBW and XSPBX binary options on the Mini-S&P 500. The contracts trade through Interactive Brokers now and roll out to Charles Schwab's 47 million accounts next.
On June 23, 2026, Cboe Global Markets launched Cboe Predicts, its new prediction markets suite. The first products are binary option contracts on the Mini-S&P 500 Index (XSP), listed under two tickers: XSPBW for PM-settled expirations and XSPBX for AM-settled expirations. Both trade in daily and weekly expirations. The contracts are live now on Interactive Brokers. Charles Schwab is next, with a rollout expected in the coming months and additional retail brokerages to follow.
The XSP is scaled to one-tenth the size of the full S&P 500 Index (SPX). That makes the contracts smaller and more accessible to retail traders: if SPX is at 5,800, XSP sits at 580. A "yes" contract on XSPBW pays $100 at settlement if XSP closes at or above the specified level. A "no" contract pays $100 if XSP closes below it. If you are wrong, you receive $0. All contracts are European-style, meaning no early exercise, and they clear through the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC).
The price of a binary option is the market's implied probability, expressed in dollars. A contract trading at $42 means the market assigns a 42% probability to the outcome occurring. A contract at $58 means 58%.
Here is a worked example. XSP is at 580. You buy one XSPBW "yes" contract at the 580 strike for $42. You believe the true probability XSP closes at or above 580 today is 55%.
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Contract price paid | $42 |
| Payout if correct | $100 |
| Net profit if correct | $58 |
| Net loss if wrong | $42 |
| Your estimated probability | 55% |
| Market's implied probability | 42% |
| Your edge | +13 percentage points |
Expected value per contract:
(0.55 × $58) − (0.45 × $42) = $31.90 − $18.90 = +$13.00
The break-even probability on a $42 contract is exactly 42% (the price you paid, since $100 × 0.42 = $42). Any estimated probability above 42% is a positive-EV position before fees. Run any setup through the PM EV calculator to check EV and Kelly sizing, or the break-even calculator to find the minimum win rate you need given the contract price.
The math is identical to trading Kalshi or Polymarket contracts: price equals implied probability, settlement is binary ($100 or $0 on Cboe; $1 or $0 on Kalshi, which requires 100 contracts to match the same notional). The subject matter and regulatory framework are what differ.
Kalshi and Polymarket charge explicit maker-taker fees on every trade. Kalshi's taker fee peaks at approximately 1.75 cents per contract at 50-cent contracts, which is 3.5% of the contract's face value at the 50/50 price point. The prediction market fee calculator shows how this reduces EV across different contract sizes and hold times.
Cboe Predicts has no separate platform fee for retail traders. The cost of trading consists of two components:
The spread is set by market makers, not Cboe. A highly liquid at-the-money strike near market close will have a narrower spread than a deep out-of-the-money contract expiring the same day. For a comparison of platform fee structures side by side, see the prediction market fees comparison guide.
Cboe's binary options are listed securities regulated under SEC oversight. They clear through the OCC, the same entity that backstops every U.S.-listed equity option. This is a fundamentally different regulatory structure from Kalshi and Polymarket US, which operate as CFTC-registered designated contract markets (DCMs).
The distinction has a direct consequence for traders: there is no state gambling-law exposure on Cboe Predicts contracts. The lawsuits Kalshi and Polymarket face in Kentucky, Nevada, and other states rest on the argument that their event contracts constitute unlicensed sports wagering under state gaming law. The CFTC's June 10, 2026 proposed rulemaking (comment period closes July 27) establishes a three-part public interest test for event contracts but does not address the sports ban challenge directly. For the full framework, see the CFTC prediction market rules 2026 guide.
Cboe avoided that exposure entirely. It offers no sports contracts, no political contracts, no entertainment contracts. The only underlying is the Mini-S&P 500, a financial benchmark firmly within the SEC's jurisdiction. There is no pending state-law lawsuit targeting S&P 500 binary options. Nationwide access follows from day one.
This is also the key difference from traditional options and prediction market hybrids. Unlike standard call or put options, Cboe Predicts contracts do not give you a graduated payoff based on how far the index moves. You win $100 or you win $0. The convexity profile of a standard SPX option does not apply here. For a deeper look at how binary options differ from standard event contracts and vanilla options, see the event contract vs options guide.
Interactive Brokers customers with options trading approval can access XSPBW and XSPBX contracts today through their standard brokerage interface. No separate platform account is required. Charles Schwab confirmed it will add access in the coming months, which opens the contracts to approximately 47 million retail accounts.
Cboe also disclosed plans for a second product layer: vertical spreads using a patent-pending framework called the Quoted Spread Book (QSB). A vertical spread on a binary option lets a trader pay a defined amount to express a ranged view, such as "XSP finishes between 575 and 585," rather than a single yes-or-no level. That product is not yet live.
Cboe is also running educational support through The Options Institute, including courses specific to the new binary contracts.