Bankroll Turnover: Why Bet Volume Matters More Than Edge
A 1% edge bet 100 times beats a 10% edge bet once. Here's the math behind turnover rate, compounding, and why volume is the real strategy.
The edge isn't everything
Most bettors obsess over finding the biggest edge. But edge without volume is just a number. The math is clear: what grows your bankroll is edge multiplied by turnover.
Expected growth = edge per bet x number of bets.
A 1% edge on a coin-flip market, bet 200 times, produces more expected profit than a 10% edge bet 5 times. And the higher-volume strategy has a dramatically smoother ride.
A concrete example
Start with a $10,000 bankroll. Compare two approaches over 3 months:
Strategy A: Big edges, low volume. You find 2 bets per week with a 6% edge, wagering $500 each. That's 24 bets over 3 months. Expected profit: 24 x $500 x 0.06 = $720.
Strategy B: Small edges, high volume. You grind 3 bets per day with a 1.5% edge, wagering $200 each. That's ~270 bets. Expected profit: 270 x $200 x 0.015 = $810.
Strategy B wins on expected value despite having one-quarter the edge per bet. It also wins on variance — 270 independent bets smooth out the noise far more than 24 do.
Use the EV calculator to verify the per-bet math, and the turnover calculator to model cumulative returns over time.
Why turnover matters more on prediction markets
Traditional sportsbooks settle bets within hours. Your capital recycles fast. A $1,000 bankroll might turn over 3-5x per week on sports.
Prediction markets are different. A Kalshi contract on "Will X happen by December?" locks your capital for months. Your effective turnover rate craters. A $1,000 bankroll with $800 locked in long-dated contracts can only deploy $200 on new opportunities.
This is why short-duration prediction market contracts — daily or weekly events — are so valuable. They give you sportsbook-like turnover with prediction-market pricing inefficiencies.
Optimal bet sizing with turnover in mind
Kelly criterion tells you the optimal bet size for a single wager. But Kelly assumes you can always make the next bet. If your capital is locked, full Kelly is too aggressive.
For high-turnover strategies, fractional Kelly (25-50% of the full Kelly recommendation) keeps you in the game through inevitable losing streaks. Run the numbers on the Kelly calculator — then cut the suggestion in half if you're deploying across multiple concurrent positions.
The compounding flywheel
Here's what most people miss: at high turnover, even tiny edges compound.
$10,000 at 1% edge per bet, reinvesting at Kelly-optimal sizing, grows to approximately $12,700 after 100 bets and $16,100 after 200 bets. That's 61% growth from a 1% edge — purely through volume and compounding.
The strategy is simple: find small, repeatable edges. Bet them at disciplined sizes. Turn over your bankroll as fast as possible. The math handles the rest.
Start with expected value to verify each bet has an edge. Use the Kelly Criterion to size it. Then repeat — turnover does the compounding.