Polymarket Expected Value Calculator

Calculate EV and optimal sizing for Polymarket positions, accounting for the per-category taker fee.

PM EV CalculatorPolymarket · Crypto-Based

Why This Matters

Polymarket charges takers a per-category fee at trade: fee = C × feeRate × p × (1−p), with feeRate 0.04 for politics and finance, 0.05 for sports, and 0.07 for crypto. The fee is charged on both winning and losing positions and peaks at $0.50, so your EV calculation subtracts the taker cost up front. Makers who post limit orders pay $0.

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Step-by-Step: PM EV Calculator on Polymarket

  1. 1

    Enter the Polymarket contract price and select Polymarket.

  2. 2

    Choose the market category to apply the correct fee rate.

  3. 3

    Input your true probability estimate.

  4. 4

    Review the EV including fee adjustments.

  5. 5

    Check the Kelly sizing. It accounts for the taker fee.

Worked Example

Polymarket politics Yes at $0.35, true probability 45%. Taker fee = 0.04 × 0.35 × 0.65 = $0.0091 per share, charged at trade. Effective cost = $0.3591. EV = (0.45 × $1.00) − $0.3591 = +$0.091/share. Makers who post a limit order pay $0, raising EV to +$0.100/share.

Polymarket Fee Summary

Fee model: Per-category taker fee: fee = C × feeRate × p × (1−p). 0.05 sports, 0.07 crypto, 0.04 politics/finance. Makers pay 0.

Formula: C × feeRate × p × (1 - p); feeRate 0.04–0.07 by category (sports 0.05 as of Jul 2026)

Timing: Charged at time of trade

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