Calculate expected value and Kelly bet sizing for Kalshi contracts, including taker and maker fee adjustments.
Kalshi's price-dependent fee structure means your EV changes based on both the contract price and your order type. The PM EV Calculator accounts for Kalshi's exact fee formula to give you accurate expected value and optimal position sizing.
Enter the Kalshi contract price and select Kalshi as the platform.
Input your estimated true probability (your conviction on the outcome).
Choose taker or maker order type — this significantly affects EV.
Review the expected value per contract and total EV for your position size.
Use the Kelly sizing recommendation to determine optimal position size.
Kalshi Yes at $0.45, your estimated true probability 55%. Taker fee = $0.02. EV per contract = (0.55 × $1.00) - (0.45 × $0.47) = $0.55 - $0.47 × 0.45... = $0.55 - $0.47 = $0.08/contract (after fees). Kelly suggests 8.5% of bankroll.
Fee model: 7% × p × (1−p) per contract (taker)
Formula: ceil(0.07 × P × (1-P) × 100) / 100
Timing: Charged at time of trade
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