Kalshi Break-Even Calculator — Win Rate After Fees

Find the minimum win rate you need on Kalshi after accounting for taker and maker fees.

Break-EvenKalshi · CFTC Regulated

Why This Matters

Kalshi's fee formula means your break-even win rate varies with the contract price. At $0.50, you need 52% to break even (taker). At $0.90, you only need 91%. Understanding this curve helps you focus on contracts where your edge exceeds the fee hurdle.

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Step-by-Step: Break-Even on Kalshi

  1. 1

    Enter the Kalshi contract price you're considering.

  2. 2

    Select Kalshi and your order type (taker or maker).

  3. 3

    The calculator shows your break-even win rate including fees.

  4. 4

    Compare your estimated true probability against the break-even.

  5. 5

    If true probability > break-even, the trade has positive expected value.

Worked Example

Kalshi Yes at $0.55 (taker). Fee = $0.02. Effective cost = $0.57. Break-even = 57.0%. If you believe the true probability is 62%, your edge = 5 percentage points — a solid +EV trade.

Kalshi Fee Summary

Fee model: 7% × p × (1−p) per contract (taker)

Formula: ceil(0.07 × P × (1-P) × 100) / 100

Timing: Charged at time of trade

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