Find the minimum win rate you need on Kalshi after accounting for taker and maker fees.
Kalshi's fee formula means your break-even win rate varies with the contract price. At $0.50, you need 52% to break even (taker). At $0.90, you only need 91%. Understanding this curve helps you focus on contracts where your edge exceeds the fee hurdle.
Enter the Kalshi contract price you're considering.
Select Kalshi and your order type (taker or maker).
The calculator shows your break-even win rate including fees.
Compare your estimated true probability against the break-even.
If true probability > break-even, the trade has positive expected value.
Kalshi Yes at $0.55 (taker). Fee = $0.02. Effective cost = $0.57. Break-even = 57.0%. If you believe the true probability is 62%, your edge = 5 percentage points — a solid +EV trade.
Fee model: 7% × p × (1−p) per contract (taker)
Formula: ceil(0.07 × P × (1-P) × 100) / 100
Timing: Charged at time of trade
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