Polymarket Break-Even Calculator

Calculate the minimum win rate needed to profit on Polymarket after the per-category taker fee.

Break-EvenPolymarket · Crypto-Based

Why This Matters

Polymarket's break-even depends on the market category and the taker fee: fee = C × feeRate × p × (1−p), with feeRate 0.04 for politics and finance, 0.05 for sports, and 0.07 for crypto. The fee peaks at $0.50 and shrinks toward the price extremes, so break-even barely exceeds the raw implied probability near $0 and $1. Makers who post limit orders pay $0 and break even at the raw price.

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Step-by-Step: Break-Even on Polymarket

  1. 1

    Enter your Polymarket contract price.

  2. 2

    Select Polymarket and the market category to set the fee rate.

  3. 3

    Review the break-even probability.

  4. 4

    Compare against other platforms' break-evens at the same price.

  5. 5

    Assess whether your conviction exceeds the break-even threshold.

Worked Example

Polymarket sports Yes at $0.40. Taker fee = 0.05 × 0.40 × 0.60 = $0.012. Effective cost = $0.412. Break-even = 0.412 / 1.00 = 41.2%. A maker who posts a limit order pays $0 and breaks even at 40.0%.

Polymarket Fee Summary

Fee model: Per-category taker fee: fee = C × feeRate × p × (1−p). 0.05 sports, 0.07 crypto, 0.04 politics/finance. Makers pay 0.

Formula: C × feeRate × p × (1 - p); feeRate 0.04–0.07 by category (sports 0.05 as of Jul 2026)

Timing: Charged at time of trade

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