Kalshi vs PredictIt 2026

The Fee Structure Gap Is Enormous

PredictIt charges 10% on profits plus 5% on withdrawals. Read that again. If you buy a contract at 40 cents and it resolves to $1, your gross profit is $0.60. PredictIt takes $0.06 (10% of profit). When you withdraw the remaining $0.94, PredictIt takes another $0.047 (5% of $0.94). Your net on a 60-cent win: $0.893. Effective take rate on profit: roughly 18%.

Kalshi charges ceil(0.07 x P x (1-P) x 100)/100 per contract per side, capped at $0.035. On that same 40 cents contract, Kalshi's fee is about $0.0168 per side - $0.034 round-trip. No withdrawal fee. Your net on the same 60-cent win: $0.966. The difference is $0.073 per contract, or about 12% of gross profit.

Worked Examples at Three Price Points

At 20 cents: On a winning trade, gross profit is $0.80. PredictIt takes $0.08 (10% of profit). Withdrawal fee on $0.92 remaining: $0.046. Total PredictIt cost: $0.126, or 15.8% of profit. Kalshi charges $0.0112 per side, $0.0224 round-trip. Kalshi total cost: $0.0224, or 2.8% of profit. Kalshi is 82% cheaper. Run this through the fee calculator to see the math at any price.

At 50 cents: Gross profit is $0.50 on a winner. PredictIt takes $0.05 (10%) plus withdrawal fee on $0.95: $0.0475. Total: $0.0975, or 19.5% of profit. Kalshi charges $0.0175 per side, $0.035 round-trip, or 7% of profit. Kalshi is 64% cheaper.

At 80 cents: Gross profit is $0.20. PredictIt takes $0.02 (10%) plus withdrawal fee on $0.98: $0.049. Total: $0.069, or 34.5% of profit. Kalshi charges $0.0112 per side, $0.0224 round-trip, or 11.2% of profit. PredictIt's effective rate is 3x Kalshi's. Near-certainty contracts on PredictIt are borderline untradeable.

The PredictIt withdrawal fee is particularly destructive because it compounds. If you withdraw $1,000 after a profitable month, you lose $50 immediately. That $50 could have been deployed into new positions. Over a year of active trading with monthly withdrawals, the drag is substantial. Use the EV calculator to see how PredictIt's fee structure affects expected value.

For active traders making dozens or hundreds of trades, PredictIt's fee structure is not just expensive - it is destructive. The 5% withdrawal fee alone means your money loses value every time it leaves the platform, creating an incentive to keep funds locked in even when no good trades exist. That is bad incentive design dressed up as a business model.

Position Limits and Market Scope

PredictIt imposes an $850 limit per contract per trader and caps total investment at $3,500 across all markets. These limits were conditions of its original CFTC no-action letter. They make PredictIt unusable for anyone with real capital to deploy - you cannot build a diversified portfolio or take meaningful positions.

Kalshi's position limits vary by market category but are orders of magnitude higher. Most markets allow four- to five-figure positions. For institutional-grade sizing, Kalshi is the only option between these two.

Market coverage also diverges sharply. PredictIt is politics-only: elections, congressional actions, executive appointments. Kalshi covers economics, weather, sports, crypto, entertainment, and politics. If you want to trade Fed rate decisions, hurricane landfalls, or Oscar winners, Kalshi is your only path.

Execution Quality

PredictIt uses a simple order-matching system. You can place limit orders, but the interface is dated and the book is thin. Spreads on less popular markets can exceed 10 cents, which further erodes any edge.

Kalshi offers a modern order book with visible bid-ask depth, limit orders, and maker-taker pricing. Maker orders (resting limit orders that provide liquidity) receive approximately 75% lower fees than taker orders. This incentivizes tighter spreads and rewards patient execution. PredictIt offers no equivalent fee discount.

Kalshi also provides REST and WebSocket APIs for systematic trading. PredictIt has no official API - third-party scrapers exist but are fragile and unsupported. For any quantitative or automated strategy, Kalshi is the only viable platform.

Tax and Regulatory Status

Both platforms now operate under CFTC regulation, though through different mechanisms. Kalshi is a designated contract market (DCM) - the gold standard for US derivatives exchanges. PredictIt operated for years under a CFTC no-action letter that was eventually revoked, though PredictIt secured a court order allowing continued operation. The regulatory footing is not equivalent. Kalshi's DCM status provides segregated customer accounts, formal clearing, and a stable legal framework. PredictIt's future regulatory status remains less certain.

PredictIt issues 1099 forms but the tax treatment of its unique profit-per-market structure creates complexity - profits and losses are not netted across markets, meaning you can owe taxes on markets where you profited even if your overall account is down. Kalshi's standard 1099 reporting is cleaner and more predictable.

When PredictIt Still Makes Sense

Exactly one scenario: you already have an active PredictIt account with open positions and you want to manage those positions to resolution. Withdrawing mid-position to move to Kalshi triggers the 5% withdrawal fee and may force you to sell at a loss.

For every other use case - new account, new trades, new capital - Kalshi is the strictly dominant choice. Lower fees by 60-80% depending on price, no withdrawal fees, higher position limits, broader markets, visible order books, API access, and stronger regulation. The comparison is not close.