The hypothetical odds with zero bookmaker margin. Used as a benchmark for finding value.
The no-vig line is the theoretical set of odds that would exist if the bookmaker charged zero commission. It represents the market's best estimate of true probabilities.
To find the no-vig line, you de-vig the offered odds using methods like multiplicative, power, or Shin. The resulting probabilities should sum to exactly 100%.
The no-vig line is important as a benchmark: if you can consistently bet at prices better than the no-vig line, you have positive expected value. Sharp books like Pinnacle are often used as no-vig benchmarks.
The process of removing the bookmaker's margin from odds to estimate the true probability of each outcome.
VigThe bookmaker's built-in commission. The difference between true odds and what you're offered.
True ProbabilityThe actual estimated likelihood of an outcome, with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Closing Line Value (CLV)Getting better odds than the final line at market close — the strongest indicator of long-term betting skill.